Tourism Winnipeg

5 The Winnipeg Barometer Report | Volume 9, 2018 Winnipeg CMA Overnight Travel Outlook (percentage growth over previous year in italics) 2017 2018 2019 Total Overnight Person-Visits (000's) 1,380 +3.3 1,422 +3.0 1,453 +2.2 Domestic 1,164 +3.1 1,195 +2.7 1,218 +1.9 United States 143 +4.2 148 +3.4 152 +2.9 Overseas 73 +4.1 78 +6.5 83 +5.6 Total Overnight Expenditures (C$ millions) $700 +5.8 $747 +6.7 $784 +5.0 Travel Price Index 2.65 3.59 2.38 Sources: Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada Winnipeg CMA Outlook In their Spring 2018 Metropolitan Travel Markets Outlook, the Conference Board of Canada is forecasting overnight visits in 2018 to the Winnipeg CMA will grow another 3.0 per cent over 2017 actuals while visitor spending is estimated to post a 6.7 per cent increase reaching $747 million. In 2018, domestic overnight visits are projected to grow 2.7 per cent assisted by increased air capacity, particularly from ultra-low-cost carriers. Also expected to boost domestic travel is the recent Winnipeg Jet's Stanley Cup run and the numerous events the city is hosting such as the 2018 Canadian Ringette Championships. However, projected slowing of the Canadian economy by the Conference Board is expected to limit the growth potential of domestic travel this year. The overnight domestic leisure market is forecasted to grow 3.1 per cent in 2018, whereas domestic business travel is expected to achieve growth of 2.2 this year. Looking ahead to 2019, the Conference Board of Canada's preliminary forecast for domestic travel to the Winnipeg CMA is a more modest pace of growth than what was forecasted for 2017 and 2018; currently estimated around 2.0 per cent. Some of the reasons for slower growth in 2019 include significantly higher gas prices, which will increase travel cost and weigh on same-day visits and intra-provincial visits. The economy (both national and regional) is forecasted to cool in 2018 into 2019. Also, the effects of the Winnipeg Jets playoff run in 2018 are not expected to extend into 2019; thus lower same-day visits. In terms of overnight U.S. travel in 2018, the Conference Board projects visits to the Winnipeg CMA will grow another 3.4 per cent over 2017 actuals. U.S. leisure overnight travel is forecasted to improve 3.6 per cent in 2018, whereas, business travel is estimated to grow at 3.3 per cent. Growth of U.S. travel in 2018 and 2019 is being attributed to strength of the U.S. economy and increased capacity by U.S. air carriers. However, the Conference Board noted higher gas prices could curtail auto travel in 2019. As a result, visitor growth from the U.S. is expected to be limited to under 3.0 per cent next year. The Conference Board of Canada forecasts travel from overseas to the Winnipeg CMA will post another strong year in 2018 where visits are expected to grow 6.5 per cent. The overnight leisure market is estimated to achieve growth of 11 per cent and overnight business travel at 5.6 per cent. Overnight travel from overseas is forecasted to slow to under 6.0 per cent in 2019, but remain strong in future years above 5.0 per cent.

• Cover