Tourism Winnipeg

Tourism Outlook Canada The Conference Board of Canada in its Autumn 2012 Tourism Markets Outlook forecasts overnight domestic travel over the medium term to post an average growth of 2.7%. This growth is attributed to a slightly stronger economic environment. The national tourism sector faces a series of challenges both domestically and abroad, including high travel prices, limited gains in household incomes and a strong Canadian dollar. As a result in 2012, domestic overnight visits are projected to post at 1.7%, U.S. overnight visits will post a small gain of 1.4% and overseas travel is forecasted to post at 1.9%. For 2013, the Conference Board predicts similar growth in values over 2012. Total overnight person visits are projected to grow 1.9%, including 2.0% growth in domestic travel and 2.5% in international travel, while U.S. travel to remain stable (0.7%). The Conference Board's index of domestic consumer confidence showed a drop in 2011 from 88.1 points at the start of the year, dropping to 69.9 points by December 2011. At the start of 2012, consumer confidence increased compared to 2011 rates, starting at 73.9 points and made small gains to close at 77.9 points in December 2012. Consumer confidence is being effected by Eurozone debt crisis and U.S. economy recovery. In contrast, prior to 2008, the index generally averaged around 120. Nationally, Canadians living in British Columbia and the Prairies showed the highest levels of consumer confidence in 2012 (109.4 points and 97.4 points, December 2012). In contrast, Ontario had the weakest consumer confidence in 2011. It has made small gains, registering at 68.4 points in December 2012, but is consistently lower than national levels. Quebec registered the lowest level of consumer confidence at 64.1 points. As of March 2013, consumer confidence registered nationally at 80.5 points showing a small gain. After the first quarter in 2013, British Columbia and the Prairies continue to have the highest levels of consumer confidence (105.1 points and 88.7 points respectively, March 2013). The province of Ontario is also seeing gains registering at 76.3 points, however, Quebec and Atlantic Canada are seeing the lowest consumer confidence (71.2 points and 71.6 points respectively, March 2013). Weak demand from the U.S. remains a concern. The strong Canadian exchange rate and only modest growth in the U.S. economy suggest it is unlikely to foster strong growth in U.S. visits. Instead, overnight visits are expected to grow at a modest pace of less than 1.0% per year. In contrast, stronger growth is expected by overseas visits as demand from emerging markets, such as Brazil, India and China, drive overseas visits. As expected, no growth and even negative growth is expected from European travel markets due to consumer confidence and its economic climate. Overall tourism spending in 2013 is expected to have strong growth similar to 2012, increasing to 4.6%. The pace of spending growth is expected to rise over the medium term at these levels as visitor volumes improve. Although travel prices are expected to rise in 2013 (2.3%), they continue to do so at a slower pace than 2011, which saw a 4.7% rise in travel prices. The Winnipeg Barometer Report | Volume 4, 2013 9

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