Tourism Winnipeg

Barometer Report 2019 Volume 10

Issue link: http://tourismwpg.uberflip.com/i/1144333

Contents of this Issue

Navigation

Page 2 of 11

Looking back on 2018, it was a mixed year of modest travel gains in domestic travel and subdued growth in international markets. Total overnight visitation grew 1.6 per cent over 2017 while related expenditures were up 5.4 per cent. Visitation improved in many regions across the country; regionally, western provinces performed best in 2018. This was welcome news as the Prairie provinces looked to recover from a difficult past few years. For 2019, the Conference Board of Canada's latest Travel Market Outlook (Autumn 2018/Winter 2019) forecasts strong travel growth from international markets while domestic travel is expected to grow at a slower pace. Canada's overnight visitation is estimated to grow by another 2.0 per cent over 2018 visits, while related travel expenses are projected to increase 5.3 per cent to an estimated $62.1 billion. Strengths in the Canadian tourism industry that will boost travel in 2019 include solid convention activity across the country and an upward trend in cruise ship activity in coastal regions. Plus, new direct flights from the U.S., Europe, Asia-Pacific and South America will help Canada tap into new markets. However, a few weaknesses worth noting that will impact travel growth include a cooling economy in many provinces across the country. Air capacity gains from 2018 will be off-set this year by the grounding of Boeing's 737 Max 8 jets. Also, higher interest rates are restricting discretionary spending among households in domestic and international markets and the escalation of economic and financial uncertainty will impact future growth. According to the Conference Board of Canada, overnight domestic travel in Canada for 2019 is forecasted to grow at the same rate as 2018 at 1.6 per cent. The modest pace of growth has been attributed to a slowing economy in many provinces. Many Canadian households are facing some challenges in regards to personal finances, including modest gains in real wages, weak job growth, and increasing costs of inflation and borrowing. All this suggests that spending growth on travel will likely continue to be restrained. Rising travel prices, primarily for fuel and accommodations, are also a factor that will affect domestic travel. Growth in domestic travel is projected to average 1.5 per cent between 2020 and 2022. In terms of business travel, this market segment is expected to grow 2.1 per cent in 2019 and achieve similar level growth between 2020 and 2022. With the U.S. economy surging ahead and consumer confidence at near-record levels, it is perhaps surprising that overnight travel from the U.S. did not perform better in 2018, up a modest 1.2 per cent. Reasons noted by the Conference Board for 2018's modest growth include the difficulty in sustaining the increased volume of travel that resulted from tremendous growth, a slightly less- favourable exchange rate and rising travel prices mainly due to higher fuel and accommodation costs. Looking forward, U.S. visitation is projected to expand at a slightly faster pace in 2019 thanks to modest gains in travel prices and new travel demand from the legalization of cannabis. Overnight visitation from the U.S. is projected to grow 3.2 per cent in 2019 and average around 2.4 per cent between 2020 and 2022. Fresh off the remarkable growth of the past few years, the number of overnight visits from overseas markets grew by a modest 1.8 per cent in 2018. Similar to the U.S. market, the slower pace of growth is partly reflecting a natural adjustment to strong growth of the past few years. At the same time, economic issues and uncertainty are affecting consumer confidence in some key markets and curtailed travel demand to Canada. Also, the rise in travel prices and airfares has also impacted travel growth where new air access was gained in 2018. For 2019, the Conference Board of Canada is forecasting overseas visits to increase 4.7 per cent over 2018 visits, assuming the economic outlook improves with some resolution in global trade disputes and Brexit negotiations. Overseas travel to Canada is projected to grow at an average of 5.3 per cent between 2020 and 2022. National tourism highlights

Articles in this issue

view archives of Tourism Winnipeg - Barometer Report 2019 Volume 10